What Does Probability Mean in Your Profession?
Eight probability number lines showing how different professions (journalists, bankers, news anchors, philosophers, forecasters, action heroes) translate probabilities into words.
Content note: News-anchor card mentions harm to children and buying firearms (satire). Star Wars and Mission: Impossible references.
Use this cartoon
Free for classrooms, worksheets, slides and other non-commercial use under CC BY-NC 4.0, with credit to Ben Orlin.
Cartoon by Ben Orlin, Math with Bad Drawings. https://cartoons.mathwithbaddrawings.com/2015-01-01-what-does-probability-mean-in-your-profession/ (CC BY-NC 4.0)Transcript
[Each card: a number line from 0 to 1 labeled with phrases]
[1] Actual Meaning (probability): definitely not (0) · probably not (~0.1–0.4) · maybe (~0.5) · probably (~0.6–0.9) · definitely (1)
[2] Political Journalist (probability of election outcome): "the threat is real" and "a distinct possibility" (near 0) · "too close to call" (almost everything) · "far from certain" and "still in doubt" (near 1)
[3] Investment Banker (probability of destroying economy): "zero risk" (low) · "high risk, high reward" (middle) · "no one could have foreseen this" (high)
[4] Local News Anchor (probability of harm to your child): "justified panic," "crisis situation," "buy firearms and canned goods" (all near 0) · "your child is statistically a goner" (everything else)
[5] Philosopher (probability of statement's truth): "an intriguing hypothesis" (0) · "open research question" (everything between) · "tautological" (1)
[6] Weather Forecaster (probability of rain): "not gonna rain" (low) · "not gonna rain but I don't want you to get mad at me if it does" (up to 0.5) · "gonna rain" (above 0.5)
[7] Mission Impossible Agent (probability of mission success): "5 for 5 so far" (at 0) · [what would that even mean?] (everything else)
[8] Millennium Falcon Captain (probability of successfully navigating an asteroid field): "NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS" (written over the whole line)