Well-Calibrated Priors
One person is amazed by something; the other, a Bayesian with well-calibrated priors, saw it coming. Why it's so hard to surprise a mathematician.
Transcript
"Wow! Can you believe this?!" "Yes." "You're no fun." "People with well-calibrated priors rarely are."
Use this cartoon
Free for classrooms, worksheets, slides and other non-commercial use under CC BY-NC 4.0, with credit to Ben Orlin.
Cartoon by Ben Orlin, Math with Bad Drawings. https://cartoons.mathwithbaddrawings.com/2018-07-11-well-calibrated-priors/ (CC BY-NC 4.0)