Underconfident vs. Overconfident
Calibration in four quizzes: well-calibrated people predict their own scores accurately, high or low; the underconfident and overconfident don't.
Transcript
[Four quiz-takers] "Pretty sure I got 90%" (right, with 9 of 10 correct) · "UNDERCONFIDENT: Pretty sure I got 40%" (actually 9 of 10) · "OVERCONFIDENT: Pretty sure I got 90%" (actually mostly wrong) · "Pretty sure I got 40%" (right, with 4 of 10)
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Free for classrooms, worksheets, slides and other non-commercial use under CC BY-NC 4.0, with credit to Ben Orlin.
Cartoon by Ben Orlin, Math with Bad Drawings. https://cartoons.mathwithbaddrawings.com/2022-04-05-underconfident-vs-overconfident/ (CC BY-NC 4.0)