Are We There Yet? (Lindy Estimates)
The Copernican/Lindy estimate (80% confidence that something's remaining life is between 1/9 and 9 times its age so far) applied to TV shows, Marvel films, Google, car trips, civilization, the Beatles and George R.R. Martin.
Use this cartoon
Free for classrooms, worksheets, slides and other non-commercial use under CC BY-NC 4.0, with credit to Ben Orlin.
Cartoon by Ben Orlin, Math with Bad Drawings. https://cartoons.mathwithbaddrawings.com/2025-07-29-are-we-there-yet/ (CC BY-NC 4.0)Transcript
[1] "How long can we expect a thing to last, based only on how long it's been going on?" If we're 10% through, remaining = elapsed × 9. If we're 90% through, remaining = elapsed / 9. "So, what does this tell us?"
[2] Grey's Anatomy: 20 seasons so far. Probably at least 2 more seasons; probably at most 200 more.
[3] Marvel Cinematic Universe: 37 films. At least 4 more; at most 324 more.
[4] Google: 27 years since founding. At least 3 more years; at most 243 more.
[5] "Are we there yet?" 20 minutes into a drive: at least 2 more minutes; at most 3 hours.
[6] Human civilization, 10,000 years old: at least 1,000 more years; at most 90,000.
[7] The Beatles (63 years so far): at least 7 more years; at most 567.
[8] A Song of Ice and Fire (5 books so far): at least 1/2 a book; at most 45 more books.
[9] Winds of Winter (waiting since 2011): no sooner than 2027; no later than 2151.
[10] "How many more examples will this list include? (this is the 9th)" At least 1 more; at most 81 more. "(but actually, this is the last one. these aren't prophecies, buddy, they're 80% confidence intervals based on a single fact)"