Confidence vs. Knowledge
Two scatter plots: expected positive correlation between knowledge and confidence, and the actual negative one.
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Cartoon by Ben Orlin, Math with Bad Drawings. https://cartoons.mathwithbaddrawings.com/2025-08-07-confidence-vs-knowledge/ (CC BY-NC 4.0)Transcript
[How I Thought It Worked] Scatter plot of CONFIDENCE vs KNOWLEDGE trending up: "Based on some Googling, it seems really complicated" (low/low) → "Based on years of study, I know the definite truth" (high/high)
[How It Actually Works] Trending down: "Based on some Googling, I know the definite truth" (high confidence, low knowledge) → "Based on years of study, it seems really complicated" (low confidence, high knowledge)